NEW DELHI: Ceasefire violations, which are now threatening to derail the India-Pakistan peace process, were not long ago, besides being fewer, a very organized affair, with both sides following the rules of the game.
As per what had evolved into an informal protocol over the years, each side would warn the other about their firing intent by raising a red flag, and would never fire directly on posts in front. Timings were predictable too, often once a month and definitely on important occasions like January 26 or August 14-15, during a cricket match or when a high-profile foreign dignitary visited India. That was until mid-2012, when the Indo-Pak tensions along the Line of Control picked pace and raced to a new level.
The firings then became more frequent, the warning flags were not raised. Fire would even be directed on the posts across. And both sides engaged occasionally in "aggressive cross-border actions". Statistics speak for themselves — in 2010, there were 57 violations, in 2011 there were 61. But in 2012, the figure virtually doubled to 117. In the first 10 days of this year, there have already been at least four violations.
"There has been an increase in ceasefire violations. There been an increase in infiltration attempts. In 2012, there was an overall increase over 2011. That is a fact. And that is something we are dealing with, both ourselves and with the Pakistani authorities," national security advisor Shivshankar Menon said on Thursday.
While terrorist infiltrations have always been significantly higher along the LoC in the Kashmir Valley, it is particularly along the stretch from south of Uri to north of Rajouri in the Jammu region that most ceasefire violations have taken place. Other than for these violations, the ceasefire between the two countries along the borders since November 2003 has been largely holding well.
A senior source in the security establishment said there have been occasional flare-ups in the region, but no serious attention seems to have been paid to them by both New Delhi and Islamabad. And it peaked on January 8, with the beheading of an Indian soldier that is now threatening the tense diplomatic engagement between the two sides.
Sources said there could be several reasons why the ceasefire was being breached in this particular area which includes the Mendhar sector. On the Poonch side, Indian forces occupy dominant positions while in Mendhar sector, where the two soldiers were brutally killed, the Pakistan army enjoys more dominant positions. This mismatch could be one of the triggers.
The other trigger involves the efforts to help terrorists to infiltrate into J&K. The Pakistan army regularly provides firing cover for them to come in. Inputs have also spoken of changing trends in infiltration, including many happening in winter.
Traditionally, winter months were infiltration-free because of the heavy snowfall and bad weather. But that is not the case any longer. In light of the latest flare-up, many seasoned hands in the establishment are calling for political leadership to pay closer attention to the local dynamics at play in the Uri/Mendhar sectors.
The Army assessment is that while 2011 witnessed only 52 "successful" infiltrations, the number jumped to 121 in 2012. Infiltration attempts have steadily risen since the departure of General Pervez Musharraf. Apart from the lull after the 26/11 terror attacks, Indian sources have noted a steady rise in the attempt by Pakistanis to push terrorists into Jammu & Kashmir.
These were also the years when due to the rising violence, terrorism and military action on the western flank, Pakistan moved a large number of its forces from the east to the west to deal with the war in Afghanistan and in the border regions.
Border truce violations almost doubled last year
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Border truce violations almost doubled last year
